High-Seeded Teams in March Madness That Can Pull off an Upset

written-date: 3/18/25

Every year during bracket season, millions around the country set their sights on finding the NCAA Tournament’s next Cinderella Team.  Saint Peter’s, Florida Gulf Coast, George Mason, Loyola Chicago - just a few examples of mid-major programs that made fans out of thousands who had never watched a game after miraculous, magical postseason runs. With the field set for Thursday, let’s take a look at some teams that I think can make some noise in this year’s NCAAT. And as much as I want to talk about North Carolina or Vanderbilt or Arkansas as double-digit seeds, this list is reserved for non-Power-5 and mid-major programs. 

UC San Diego Tritons

Record: 30-4

Big West Champions Regular Season/Tournament

12-Seed, South Region

Opponent: Michigan

Winning both the Regular season title and the Conference Tournament - there are few hotter teams in the country than UC San Diego.  Winners of 15 straight, in their first year of eligibility for the NCAAT as a school that transitioned to D1 in 2020, the Tritons dominated an up-year for the Big West Conference to earn their slot in March Madness.  This is a team that is exceptional offensively and defensively - granted against lesser-competition than the Power 5’s. But ranking in the Top 10 Nationally in 3-point makes per game and 3rd in the field of 68, 1st in fewest turnovers per game in the whole country, AND 1st in the field in opponent turnovers per game(1st in steals) - makes them a real tough out..  Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is a New Zealand Native that averages 20 points a night, while Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray provide great shooting from the outside. They’re very small - their tallest player that plays at least 18 minutes a night is 6’8 - so they may be susceptible against a Michigan team with two star 7-footers in Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf.  But don’t underestimate the Tritons, who have proven they know how to win games as well as anyone in the country.

New Mexico Lobos

Record: 26-7

Mountain West Regular Season Champs

10-Seed, South Region

Opponent: Marquette 

After falling short in the semi-finals of the MWC Tournament, the New Mexico Lobos are out for blood. A 17-3 conference record in the always-difficult Mountain West to boot, Richard Pitino’s team would’ve been dangerous for any opponent, let alone Marquette (already stacked 3 losses this season to a Pitino).  Donovan Dent is one of the finest all-around players in the country - the MW player of the year and a 20.6 ppg, 6.4 apg lead guard that shot 42% from 3. He forms a formidable tandem with Center Nelly Junior-Joseph (14 ppg, 11 rpg, 3 stocks per game) who is a ravenous rebounder and finisher around the rim. I like their supporting cast with 2 more double figure scorers in Mustapha Amzil and Tru Washington - but I do worry about their depth, especially in the frontcourt behind Junior-Joseph.  Still, this is a team ranking in the top 25 nationally in rebounds per game, opponent turnovers, blocks and steals, making them a frightening match-up for any team’s offense.  Staying out of foul trouble and making their free throws will be key to beat a dynamic Marquette team.

Colorado State Rams

Record: 25-9

Mountain West Tournament Champs

12-Seed, West Region

Opponent: Memphis

Finished 2nd in the Mountain West Regular Season before winning the MWC Tournament with 3 excellent wins, the CSU Rams are HOT coming into March. Winners of 10 straight and 16 of their last 18 - they’re so hot they are FAVORED as a 12-seed over 5th-seeded Memphis in the Round of 64.  And for good reason - this team is legit. You may remember the David Roddy CSU team that earned a 6-seed just a few years ago, but I think this team is even better. Nique Clifford would have been the Player of the Year in most conferences around the country, but he happens to play in the same league as Donovan Dent. But he averages 19 pts, 10 rebounds (as a 6’6 guard), 4.5 assists and is 51/40/77 splits.  He’s the engine of this winning streak - averaging 25 ppg in the MWC tourney after dropping 36 on Boise State in the last game of the regular season. As a team, they don’t pop off the page in any specific category. But they’re very efficient offensively, do a good job defensively by most metrics, and have a superstar player to lead them - which is a winning formula in March.

Drake Bulldogs

Record: 30-3

MVC Champions Regular Season/Tournament

11-Seed, West Region

Opponent: Missouri 

Drake is one of the best stories in all of College Basketball this season. First year coach Ben McCollum has vaulted to the top of coaching candidates after his first season with Drake following 15 years of dominance at Division 2 Northwest Missouri State (including 4 D2 National Titles).  He brought several of his guys with him from NWMSU, including the new Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year in Bennett Stirtz. Averaged 19/4.4/6 on the year on 49/39/80 splits and absolutely carried this team at times throughout. He shoulders a heavy load, and while his teammates’ statistics don’t jump off the page, the supporting cast has stepped up at different times throughout the season.  Tavion Banks has come along over the last month to be a real contributor, Mitch Mascari is an excellent shooter (41% from 3), and Daniel Abreu is up and down but 2nd on the team in ppg. Drake leads the country in fewest opponent points per game (58.4) ahead of the likes of Houston, St. Mary’s, Duke, VCU, and Tennessee.  They’re also the only team in the country that plays fewer than 60 possessions a game - i.e., they slow the tempo to a crawl. Against Mizzou, we’ll see if they’re able to bend the Tigers to their will, because if MIZ can speed them up, the Bulldogs will be run right out of the tournament. 

Liberty Flames

Record: 28-6

CUSA Champions - Regular Season and Conference Tournament 

12-Seed, East Region

Opponent: Oregon

Leading the country in effective field goal percentage, Top 5 in 3-point percentage, and Top 10 in total defense - this is a recipe to win games in March ladies and gentlemen. Add wins over College of Charleston, McNeese, Kansas State, Louisiana, and Valpo to the mix, and you can see why the Flames are a popular upset pick this week.  This is a squad that is very malleable - being able to win in a multitude of different ways. If the shots aren’t falling, they’ll lock you up and win ugly. If they’re hot from 3, good fucking luck.  Worth noting that their impressive defensive numbers come while playing a CUSA schedule in a relative-down year, but they also kept all those non-con teams they beat under 70 points.  Kaden Metheny is the name you’ll be hearing a lot of due to his recent excellence, namely the CUSA tournament where he averaged 21 ppg with 16 triples at a 50+% clip.  At just 5’10, he’s got Cinderella SuperStar written all over him. Taelon Peter is actually their leading scorer on the year, but the Flames have lots of guys that can fill it up. This is a team that lacks quite a bit of size - which could be an issue against Oregon’s Nate Bittle - but they gang rebound and swarm the ball defensively.  

Akron Zips

Record: 28-6

MAC Champions - Regular Season and Conference Tournament

13-Seed, East Region

Opponent: Arizona

If you’re a fan that enjoys watching 3-pointers get hoisted and seeing guys running up-and-down the floor like chickens with their heads cut-off - Boy do I have a game for you. The Zips push the pace as much as any team in the country. They’re 8th nationally and 5th in the field in points per game, 4th in field goals made, and #1 in the field in 3-point makes per game. They also share the ball very well - 4th nationally in assists per game.  They played some good teams in the non-con and took their lumps, but once conference play kicked off, they were a well-oiled machine.  17-1 in the MAC, scored at will (over 100 points 6 times on the year), and were able to hold strong in road games. What’s remarkable about their scoring is only 2 players on the roster average over 10 ppg - Nate and Tavari Johnson. But that’s because they’re very balanced and very deep - have had 10 different players lead the team in scoring in a game this year. Another team that doesn’t have a ton of size, but rebounds very well as a team (1st in MAC).  If they shoot it well - they can compete with anyone. And Arizona is the perfect opponent for the pace and style Akron wants to play. 

Virginia-Commonwealth Rams

Record: 28-6

A-10 Champions - Regular Season and Conference Tournament

11-Seed, East Region

Opponent: BYU

The A-10 is probably top 3 in terms of toughest mid-major/non-Power-5 conferences in the country. But VCU’s dominance of the entire league this year has created a perception of the league having a down year - but that is not the case.  Dayton started the year an at-large favorite before dropping a few conference games. George Mason was right on the bubble, but got left out after losing the A-10 championship.  Loyola Chi, Saint Louis, Saint Joe’s, George Washington - there were plenty of talented teams. But VCU dominated from start to finish, leaving no doubt they were the class of the A-10. 15-3 in conference, wins over Colorado State and Boston College in non-con, played New Mexico tough at The Pit, and a Top 10 Defense Nationally by any comprehensive metrics. Max Shulga has emerged as their go-to offensive option, but they have a number of guards that can hurt defenses. Phil Russell, Joe Bamisile, Zeb Jackson, Jack Clark - all 10+ ppg scorers and average 2 or more assists. This is a team that carries a near +15 point differential per game on the year, and if you aren’t hitting shots against VCU, you’re in serious danger of getting run out of the gym. 

Montana Grizzlies 

Record: 25-9

Big Sky Tournament Champions

14-Seed, East Region

Opponent: Wisconsin

This is a pretty tough sell as a 14-seed, but bear with me. Not only is Wisconsin forced to travel to Denver + play at altitude (which the Grizzlies have done often) but Montana is finally hitting their stride this season - winners of 14 of their last 15. The defense is an issue for sure - but they’ve cracked down on that side of the ball in the last month or so. And when the defense has faded, the offense has stepped up, averaging 80 points a game in their last 15. This is the longest shot in this year’s tournament that I am betting on/believing in (Montana was a +19 point dog last I checked).  And it’s not an indictment of Wisconsin - I think they’re an excellent team that has really changed their identity from past years. They have great size which will no doubt be problematic for Montana, but I’m betting on the guards and wings being able to go toe-to-toe with Wisco’s. And if Wisconsin is focused on trying to exploit their size advantage, I think it takes them out of their style of play and favors Montana.  Money Williams comes off the bench for the Grizzlies and is a very fun player to watch - very cerebral and skilled finding ways to score. Malik Moore is an excellent shooter (42%), Joe Pridgen is built like a tank, and Kai Johnson hit his stride in the Big Sky Championship with 23 points on perfect 3-pt shooting.  I wouldn’t go out and put my house on their Moneyline, but don’t be surprised if these Grizzlies give Wisconsin all they can handle.  

McNeese State Cowboys 

Record: 27-6

Southland Champions - Regular Season and Conference Tournament

12-Seed, Midwest Region

Opponent: Clemson

I’m not the biggest believer in Will Wade’s Cowboys, but looking at the body of work over the last two seasons, it’s necessary to mention them as a candidate to make a run.  They went 19-1 in conference and boast a Top 15 point differential Nationally.  This is a team that doesn’t turn the ball over at a high rate, while turning over their opponent at a very high rate. They do a nice job limiting damage on the glass despite not having a ton of size, and they’re one of the nation’s best at scoring off their opponent’s turnovers.  They tested themselves in the non-con playing @ Alabama (8 pt loss), @ Liberty (4 pt loss), @ Mississippi State (3 pt loss), Santa Clara (7 pt loss), and North Texas (7 pt win).  They’ve only lost one game since mid-December, so the competition level definitely dropped off, and I’ll be interested to see if they’re able to maintain their level of success against a really good Clemson team.   

High Point Panthers

Record: 29-5

Big South Champions - Regular Season and Conference Tournament

13-Seed, Midwest Region

Opponent: Purdue

My last Cinderella candidate is one of my favorite teams in the field - The High Point Panthers.  They have many of the same qualities as teams I’ve listed already: they’re red-hot (14 straight wins), shoot the ball very well, play at a breakneck pace, top 10 nationally in point differential, won nearly 30 games, and shoot nearly 50% from the field.  They’re very well-balanced and have had a multitude of different players lead the team in scoring throughout the year - but their backcourt rotation of Kezza Giffa, Bobby Pettiford, D’Maurian Williams and Kimani Hamilton is lethal when they’re on.  High Point also has more size than a lot of the other mid-major teams we’ve discussed with big-man Juslin Bodo Bodo (8.4 rpg).  They also play better defense than they get credit for - leading the Big South and the only conference team allowing fewer than 70 ppg. The biggest flaw I see with this team is that Purdue will be FAR AND AWAY the best team they’ve played this season - the best teams they played in non-con this year were UAB, North Texas, and App State (all wins, for what it’s worth). I’m picking High Point in my bracket, but keep in mind this could get real sideways if the shots aren’t falling or Bodo Bodo gets in foul trouble. 

I’m rolling with High Point, UC San Diego (to the Sweet 16), Drake (to the Sweet 16), Montana, New Mexico, and Colorado State in my bracket. But I’d love to see every one of those underdogs get a win and write their own March Madness Story. Can’t wait for Thursday!