March Madness 2025 - Bid Watch

3/10/25

We’re officially less than one week away from having finalized March Madness brackets, and just a little over a week away from seeing the first jump ball of the March Madness tournament. With the bubble seeming as big as ever, bid-stealers playing hot, and at-large teams needing key wins - this is shaping up to be an incredibly exciting week of hoops. A few conference tournaments have already concluded, but the vast majority will finish up this week. Here I’ll give a snapshot of what’s at stake today, Mon. 3/10, among tournament hopefuls. Two win and get in games, semi-final match-ups, quarter-finals, and early round games are all on the slate - as well as snapshots of the 5 teams who already punched their ticket.

Already Dancing

Missouri Valley

Drake Bulldogs (30-3)

Drake put a stamp on a dominant season with a trip to the Big Dance on Sunday Afternoon, beating Bradley 63-48 in a rivalry championship matchup. They beat Belmont and Southern Illinois en route to their MVC championship. First year coach Ben McCollum has done arguably the best coaching job of anyone in the country this year, transitioning from Division II to Division I as seamlessly as we’ve ever seen. Keep an eye on Bennett Stirtz (19 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6 apg) the undisputed leader of this powerhouse 30-3 team.

Ohio Valley

SIUE Cougars (22-11)

SIUE took down top-seeded SEMO in a convincing 69-48 victory - avenging a pair of losses earlier in the year and proving the theory “it’s tough to beat a team 3 times.” They’re led by Ray’Sean Taylor (19.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4 apg) who is a do-it-all lead guard that can fill it up. What they lack in size across the board, they make up for with team rebounding and nearly 7 steals a game. Ring Maith (6’9, 11.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg) anchors the interior.

Summit League

Omaha Mavericks (22-12)

Omaha was an interesting case for conference championship games on Sunday as they already knew they’d be dancing before tip-off. St. Thomas (MN) is a team that has transitioned from DIII to DI in the past 4 years, meaning they don’t qualify to participate in March Madness (dumbest rule in NCAA history). Omaha is red-hot, winners of 6 straight. They handled the Thommies 85-75 last night and look to carry the momentum into March. They’re led by Forward Marquel Sutton (19 ppg, 8 rpg), JJ White (14 ppg, 4 apg), and Tony Osburn (12.2 ppg, 40% 3pt).

ASUN Conference

Lipscomb Bisons (25-9)

Lipscomb beat a good North Alabama Team 76-65 in the championship game Sunday for the ASUN crown. The top-seeded Bisons also had an OT thriller with Queens in the semi-final and are winners of 6 straight. This is a good scoring team (79.3 ppg, 47% FG, 36% 3pt) led by Senior forward Jacob Ognacevic (20 ppg, 8 rpg). They have 5 players averaging at least 10 points per game and can beat you in multiple ways. They bring big bodies off the bench, and have a trio of very talented guards (Pruitt, Anderson, Powell).

Big South

High Point Panthers (29-5)

A dominant season beginning to end - boasting a 14-2 conference record and wins over tournament hopefuls American, UAB, and North Texas (also a real bad loss to Missouri State though), High Point survived a tough semifinal vs Radford and outlasted Winthrop in the final 81-69. High Point had high expectations this year, and at 29-5 met them with ease. A balanced team with 10 guys playing over 13 mpg, will be interesting to see if depth is a hindrance or an advantage in March. Kezza Giffa (15 ppg), D’Maurian Willaims (13.5 ppg), and Kimani Hamilton (13.4 ppg, 5 rpg) lead the way on the offensive end for this unit.

Will Have a Bid by Tonight

Sun Belt Final

Arkansas State (24-9) vs Troy (22-10)

Predicted Winner: Arkansas State

The Sun Belt Gauntlet is coming to an end with tonight’s final between Ark State and Troy. The 3 and 4 seeds respectively, these teams technically had the same records as 1 and 2 seeds South Alabama and James Madison, but managed to beat them in the semifinals to earn a berth to the conference championship. These teams are similar in the fact they do not shoot it well from 3 pt (31% and 29% respectively) and have long, athletic guards bolstering their backcourts. I lean Red Wolves in this one because I like their interior presence better with Izaiyah Nelson (10 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.4 bpg) and think they have a better lead guard in Taryn Todd (15 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3 apg), as well as a supporting cast that offers more shooting than Troy’s.

SoCon Final

Wofford (18-15) vs Furman (25-8)

Predicted Winner: Wofford

The SoCon tournament has been batshit crazy, for those who haven’t tuned in. The top 4 seeds all lost early - Chattanooga, UNC-Greensboro, ETSU, and Samford. That leaves us with the 5th and 6th seeds Paladins vs Terriers for the SoCon ship. On paper, it’s really tough to pick against Furman. Many remember their dramatic win over Virginia in 2023 - and they beat great Chattanooga and Samford teams back-to-back to earn their berth in the final. Beat Wofford by 3 on the road just over a week ago on March 1st, have won 6 straight, and have 2 dynamic scorers in Pjay Smith Jr. (18 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg) and Nick Anderson (15 ppg, 40% 3pt). Wofford in my eyes are the big underdogs, despite the spread being just -1.5 toward Furman. They’re 18-15, played a brutal non-con, and have real Cinderella vibes. They got a granny-style-FT-shooting center in Kyle Filewich (12 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3 apg), a strong lead guard Corey Tripp (14.4 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg) and a pair of Bailey’s that can score in support (Dillon and Justin). I think Furman has a better shot at an upset next week, but gotta pull for the Terriers.

Semi-Finals to Watch

Coastal Athletic Association

Tonight’s semi matchups:

Delaware (15-19) vs Towson (22-10)
College of Charleston (24-8) vs UNC Wilmington (27-7)

Predicted Winners: Towson and UNCW

Predicted Conference Winner: Towson

Starting on Friday of last week, the CAA tournament has been very entertaining. Delaware - seeded 12th out of 14 teams in the CAA - has made a miraculous run to the semi-finals beating Stony Brook, Campbell, and William & Mary in successive days. John Camden’s 36/7/5 with 8 made 3’s charged them into the semis, but I think the magic may run out against Towson. The regular season champions at 16-2 in conference, Towson was the best CAA Team far and away this year. They challenged themselves in the non-con and took their lumps, but it paid off in conference play. Delaware played Towson close twice this year and are RED hot, but I think the Tigers advance.

CoC and UNCW is an excellent mid-major matchup. Both teams are playing well as of late, but Wilmington has won both matchups this season and are favored by 3.5 points. Charleston goes as Ante Brzovic goes (18.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 3 apg) and they hope the 6’10 Croatian can give them the edge down low. Their trio of guards Boyd, Tavarez, and smith combine to average just under 49 ppg, and one will need to step up big to pull off the win. UNCW is a more balanced group without a tried and true star to play through, but they have 10 players that average at least 7 points a game. This is a long, deep, athletic roster that can cause havoc defensively, which they’ll need to do in order to slow down Brzovic.

I like UNCW to beat Charleston - despite it being very hard to beat a team 3 times. I love Delaware’s story and will be rooting for them, but I like Towson’s talent too much. In a riveting potential matchup of UNCW and Towson, I lean Towson. They have good length to match-up with UNCW, they don’t play exclusively through the post where UNCW’s size can hurt them, and I like their trio of scorers more than any 3 UNCW can put forward. Give me the Tigers!

Horizon League

Tonight’s match-ups:

Oakland (16-17) vs Robert Morris (24-8)
Youngstown State (20-12) vs Cleveland State (21-11)

Predicted Winners: Robert Morris and Youngstown State

Predicted Conference Winner: Robert Morris

After taking the whole weekend off following their Thursday Night Quarter-Finals, the Horizon is back Monday for the semi-finals with 2 solid match-ups. The 1st-seeded Robert Morris Colonials will square off with the upset-happy Oakland Golden Grizzlies in game #1. Oakland knocked off Green Bay and Milwaukee to get to the semis, and just one year removed from their shocking upset over Kentucky in last year’s tournament (shoutout Jack Gohlke). Oakland is led by Tuburu Naivalurua (14 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and Allen Mukeba (14.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg) as two under-sized, strong-bodied wings who play hard-nosed ball. Robert Morris handled Wright State easily Thursday and are a formidable threat having only lost 5/20 conference games. Their trio of Kam Woods (15 ppg, 5 rpg, 5 apg), Alvaro Folguieras (14 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3 apg), and Amarion Dickerson (13 ppg, 6 rpg) lead the way, but they have no shortage of size, scoring, and playmaking throughout the roster. Oakland is a fun story, but I don’t like their depth and think RM has more bucket-getters if it’s close late.

Cleveland State was the 2 seed for this conference tourney, and they took care of Northern Kentucky to open things up. Tevin Smith (14 ppg, 4 rpg) and big man Dylan Arnett (11.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg) are the two that I’d worry most about if I had to play the Vikings. This is an excellent defensive team that makes up for a lack in size with hustle. Youngstown St is one of my favorite mid-major units in the country. They have one of the more exciting players in mid-major basketball in EJ Farmer, but he hasn’t played since February 16th and really hinders the offense with his absence. Nico Gallette (13 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 apg) and Ty Harper (10.4 ppg, 3 rpg) have picked up the slack, scoring 20+ in their win over IPFW, but they’ll need more scoring to make a run. I still like them to outpace the Vikings.

In a potential championship between Robert Morris and Youngstown - if Farmer wasn’t hurt it’d be an easy choice for me, but I have to stick with the favorite considering the uncertainty on the other end. Morris is too deep and talented, and I think their defense will hold.

West Coast Conference

Tonight’s Games:

Pepperdine (13-21) vs Saint Mary’s (27-4)
San Francisco (24-8) vs Gonzaga (23-8)

Predicted Winners: Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga

Predicted Conference Winner: Gonzaga

Three usual suspects, one utter surprise, and two great semi-final games. Pepperdine has won 3 straight WCC tournament games - beating Portland, Oregon St, and Santa Clara to make it here. They were 4-14 in conference - so any win in-conference can be a shocker, let alone in the conference tourney. Moe Odum is averaging 22.3 ppg and 11.3 apg in their 3 games, while leading scorer Stefan Todorovic is averaging 24 ppg in the same stretch. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played a game in 9 days, but the WCC regular season champs look as strong as ever. They return the majority of their production from last season, including big man Mitchell Saxen (10.4 ppg, 8 rpg) and Augustas Marciulionis (14.4 ppg, 6 apg, 3 rpg). Lithuanian forward Paulius Murauskas (13 ppg, 8 rpg) transferred in from Arizona and has been excellent for the Gaels. I love a Cinderella-Team as much as the next guy, but I think the magic has run out for Pepperdine.

Real interesting match-up in game 2 between the Dons and the Zags. San Fran has been the 3rd best team in the WCC for several years now, but aside from some early NCAAT exits, it hasn’t seen much March success. But this year they have a scorer in Malik Thomas that is scoring the ball better than any Don in the last 9 seasons (19 ppg, 38% 3pt). They typically have lots of size on the frontline, but are a much guard-heavier team this year while mixing in some big forwards and centers. Gonzaga is having one of their most disappointing seasons in a long time - which is a testament to their success as they sit at 23-8. Ryan Nembhard is the leader of this team, and is the first college player I can remember since Ja Morant to average double-digit assists per game (10.1 apg, 11 ppg). Graham Ike (17 ppg, 7.4 rpg) is their leading scorer while Khalif Battle (13 ppg, 44/34/94 splits) and Nolan Hickman (11.4 ppg 44% 3pt) round out their scoring attack. I love San Francisco every year and always want to see them make the jump and win a WCC title, but their Kryptonite has been Gonzaga, and I think the Zags have too much size and shooting for San Fran to keep up.

A classic title matchup between Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga is what I think we’re gonna see, and despite St. Mary’s dominant 17-1 WCC season, I think Gonzaga will reassert themselves as the conference’s finest. So much size and shooting for Mark Few’s team that, despite St. Mary’s incredible defense, I think they outrun the Gaels.

Tonight’s Quarter-Finals and Early Rounds

Southland

Tonight’s Games:

Northwestern State (15-15) vs Texas A&M-CC (20-13) – McNeese (25-6) awaiting winner
Incarnate Word (17-15) vs Nicholls (19-12) – Lamar (19-12) awaiting winner

Predicted Conference Winner: McNeese

Quarter-finals are underway tonight after A&M-CC and Incarnate Word earned wins in their opening games on Sunday. I like Corpus Christi to keep the ball rolling over Northwestern State, and I lean Nicholls winning over Incarnate Word in tonight’s game, setting up 2 very nice semi-finals.

McNeese is the prohibitive favorite to earn a berth to the NCAAT. They sit at 25-6 and boast a 19-1 conference record (only loss coming @ Nicholls by 8). Will Wade’s team has won 9 straight and are a terror on both ends of the floor. They’re very balanced offensively, but I look to SLU transfer Sincere Parker (back-to-back 20 point games, 12.4 ppg) off the bench, as well as Dahvon Garcia (12.6 ppg) and Christian Shumate (10.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) as their most consistent offensive options.

Lamar went 14-6 in conference to earn the other double-bye as they await the winner of IW and Nicholls. They lean on their defense to keep their opponents at bay and use timely 3-point shooting and transition to outscore opponents. Alexis Marmolejos (14.4 ppg) is their leading scorer on the year, but Ja’Sean Jackson (12 ppg, 4 apg) has emerged recently with some big scoring outputs. Adam Hamilton (9.5 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.6 bpg) and Andrew Holifield (10 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.6 bpg) bolster the frontcourt.

Nicholls is another dangerous team in this field - the only team to get the better of McNeese this season. Not exactly a team of skyscrapers, but the size they do have plays really hard. They have a balanced attack with 4 guys averaging between 11.3-13.1 points per game - any of which can get hot any given night. Robert Brown III (13.1 ppg, 36% 3pt), Jamal West Jr (12 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Gray Jr. (11.3 ppg, 41% 3pt), and Byron Ireland (11.8 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg) lead the way for the Colonels.

Texas A&M-CC is a team to keep an eye on as well. They’ve made the NCAAT in recent years and have a very solid forward in Garry Clark (15 ppg, 7.7 rpg). Incarnate Word is a team that shoots the ball at a high clip on high volume, but struggles inside. Led by Davion Bailey (17 ppg, 41% 3pt), Jalin Anderson (14 ppg, 5 apg, 39% 3pt) and Dylan Hayman (14 ppg, 5 rpg, 41% 3pt). Northwestern State plays solid team basketball and owns wins over several of these teams throughout the year.

I think that it’s McNeese vs the World for the Southland title. They’ve dominated this league for the past 2 years, and I don’t see Will Wade’s group choking up against any of these potential opponents. I’d love to see a Lamar/McNeese final game because I think they’re the 2 best teams in the conference, but Nicholls has clipped McNeese once this season, so if they get in it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Big Sky

Tonight’s games:

Montana State (14-17) vs Idaho State (15-14) – winner gets Northern Colorado (24-8)
Idaho (13-18) vs Portland State (19-12) – winner gets Montana (23-9)

Predicted Conference Winner: Montana

The top 2 seeds in the Big Sky - #1 Northern Colorado and #2 Montana respectively - won their opening round games and await their semi-final opponent for Tuesday night. These 2 teams are big favorites to wind up earning a berth to the NCAAT, but of the four competing tonight, I’m keeping my eye on Portland State. They are stronger in the frontcourt than most other Big Sky opponents, and they have the fewest points per game allowed in the conference, averaging more steals and blocks than anyone else. While I think there’s a chance any of the 4 teams playing today can move to the semis, my current perspective is that No Colo and Montana will handle business in those semis, so I’m focusing my efforts on these 2 squads.

The Montana Grizzlies have made some NCAAT appearances in recent years and are always a ton of fun to watch. They split with Northern Colorado in the season series with both teams winning on the road shockingly. Montana’s weaknesses lie on the inside as they are bottom-3 in conference in rebounding as well as overall defense. One thing on the defensive end that they do well is defend the 3 point line - 2nd in conference in opponent 3’s made and 3rd in opponent 3FG %. Offensively they’re a dynamic group with lots of weapons. They’re 2nd in scoring behind NoCol, and while not quite as lethal as their potential opponent, are efficient scoring from all three levels. Money Williams (13.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg) leads the way scoring and has the best name in the sport. Joe Pridgen is a big-bodied guard who leads the team in rebounds (7 rpg) and FG% (64%). They have a handful or complimentary scorers around Williams, but in recent games Brandon Whitney is who I have my eye on for a big game.

Northern Colorado is a really fun team to watch on the offensive end. They’re averaging 81.9 ppg, 5 more than Montana for Big Sky lead and are Top 35 nationally. They shoot 51% from the field and 37% from 3. They’re a very dangerous team when they get going because the offense bleeds into the defense - leading to several blowout wins on their resume. They aren’t a juggernaut defensively - but they limit the opponent's assist rate significantly, a sign of connective team defense. Isaiah Hawthorne is their star (18 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 40% 3 pt) but they get contributions from everywhere. Langston Reynolds does it all (16 ppg, 6 rpg, 3.5 apg) at a very high level, and Jaron Rille has a similar skillset (12 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg) while shooting it even better from deep. They rebound well as a team for a group without much size.

I think if either of these teams make the final and face off against any of the other 4 - Idaho, Idado state, Portland State, or Montana State - I think they win handily. If they square off in the final, get your popcorn ready for an up-and-down, high-scoring affair between 2 teams that could make a second round game in March Madness. I’m taking Montana - who I think can overcome size issues with efficient team defense and getting to the free throw line.

March Madness 2025 - Bid Watch - March 10