March Madness 2025 - Bid Watch

3/11/25

Last night the CBB Sickos like myself watched Troy (incorrectly picked) and Wofford (correctly picked) punch their tickets to the Big Dance with Tournament Championship wins. That means we officially have 7 out of the 68-team field locked in - with 4 more teams eyeing spots tonight in their tournament finals. The ACC and Big 12 also kick off their opening rounds today, but for the sake of Bid Watch, we are focusing our efforts on tonight’s finals as we inch closer to a full field for March Madness.

CAA Championship

Delaware (16-19) vs UNC-Wilmington (26-7)

Predicted Winner: UNCW

Yesterday I picked Delaware’s Cinderella Run to come to an end against Towson, but they proved me and everyone else wrong with an 82-72 win over the regular season champions. They used an ultra-balanced scoring attack (6 players scored 11+) and efficient scoring (55% from the field, 45% from deep) to take down a talented Towson team.

UNCW was part of a down-to-the-wire game with College of Charleston that they escaped with a 68-67 victory. Donovan Newby carried the load scoring 24 points and knocking down 5 threes. They only had one other player in double-figures and shot a poor 40% from the field, 30% from 3-point - but played some terrific defense forcing 13 turnovers and holding CoC to 36% shooting from the field.

I will once again be rooting for the Blue Hens - a 12-seed in their own 14-team conference that lost 11 of their last 12 conference games coming in - to pull off the upset and enter March Madness a true Cinderella. But I picked against them yesterday, and I have to pick against them tonight. UNCW has too much athleticism and defense for me to feel good about Delaware’s offense. However, I said the same thing yesterday about Towson, and when it comes to March College Basketball - ANYTHING can happen.

Northeast Conference Championship

St. Francis PA (15-17) vs Central Connecticut State (25-6)

Predicted Winner: CCSU

One of the weaker conferences as a whole in the landscape of college basketball, but an NCAAT bid on the line nonetheless. Central Connecticut has beaten SFPA twice already this year (by 16 and 15 points respectively) and had a dominant 14-2 record in NEC play. But don’t count out The Red Flash. They took out #2 Long Island in the semifinal and could make some more noise in the finals.

CCSU has had a remarkable season. 2 years ago they were 10-22, and just 6 years ago they were 4-27 and bringing up the rear for overall Kenpom rankings. Now they’re 25-6 and just steamrolled their NEC competition. In the non-con they played Providence and Rhode Island close, beat St. Joe’s, Umass, and UMass Lowell, as well as beating quality programs like Holy Cross, Fairfield, and Quinnipiac. They are balanced on offense with a few standouts in Jordan Jones (14.6 ppg, 3.5 apg), Devan Haid (14.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), and Jayden Brown (10.3 ppg, 5 rpg).

SFPA finished 4th in the NEC this season going 8-8 in conference. They played a brutal non-con schedule with big losses to Dayton, Clemson, Penn State, Georgetown, and Maryland. Aside from losses to CCSU and Stonehill in February, they’ve played some great ball lately, and more importantly have been clutch in doing so. Edged out Long Island and Wagner by 3 in the tournament, won 3 OT games in Feb/March, and have avenged some close losses from Jan. They’re led by Riley Parker (13.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 40% 3pt) and had a standout performance from Freshman Juan Cranford Jr. (20 pts) in the semifinals.

I don’t know much about either of these teams, but I’m rolling with the only team still standing in the NEC with a winning record. Likely to fade either of these teams next week.

Horizon Championship

Youngstown State (21-12) vs Robert Morris (25-8)

Predicted Winner: Youngstown State

I wrote about these two teams yesterday, correctly predicting their advancements to the finals (see Mon 3/10 Big watch). I won’t go too in-depth on either squad given I just wrote about them more detailed elsewhere, but this should be a good matchup.

Youngstown won a real barnburner over Cleveland State last night 56-54. Points were tough to come by in a game that saw more turnovers (27 total) than made 3’s (16 total). They were led by Siem Uijtendaal (he’s Dutch - good luck with pronunciation) who scored 13 points, but only averaged 4 ppg on the year. Nico Gallette struggled with his shot, but still wound up with 12 boards, 4 assists, and 3 steals.

Robert Morris got all they could handle from Oakland and needed overtime to secure their spot in the finals. They used a high-efficiency 3-point effort (10-25) to regain the lead and seal it in overtime. Kam Woods led the way with 23 points and 7 assists, and the Colonials got 4 other players in double figures to bolster the effort.

I think this should be an excellent game from two pretty evenly matched units. Their only matchup this season wound up being a last-second, 2-point win for Robert Morris. But despite not having EJ Farmer, despite playing against the #1 seed, I like the Youngstown Penguins resilience and malleability to win in different ways, and I think they find a way tonight.

WCC Championship

Gonzaga (24-8) vs Saint Mary’s (28-4)

Predicted winner: Gonzaga

The biggest conference final of the night is undoubtedly out West between rivals Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. The Gaels have won both of the previous two matchups, including an impressive 7-point win in Spokane.

Gonzaga were tested by San Francisco last night in a semifinal game they wound up winning 85-76. Graham Ike came to play with a 27-10-3 performance, while Khalif Battle scored 21 and Ryan Nembhard contributed 8 points and 8 assists. They got lit up by opposing Malik Thomas who went off for 27-8-4, but Thomas also goes off against everyone, so not sure there’s much to glean from that. In the previous two matchups, the Gaels hurt them on the boards with a +20 combined in the 2 games. Ike played excellent in both matchups, but the zags will need more from Ajayi, Gregg, Battle, and Hickman to win. Ryan Nembhard needs to be more active offensively as well (11 points in both).

St. Mary’s has had a dream season - 17-1 record in the WCC, beat Gonzaga twice, and have found their rhythm on both ends. They spanked an underdog Pepperdine team in the semifinal, largely behind the contributions of Marciulionis and Murauskas. Saint Mary’s really excels on the glass, and it was a huge reason for their 2 wins over Gonzaga. They’ll need to stay vigilant on that end and need to find their strokes from deep (2-13 vs Pepperdine) to get a 3rd win over their rival.

This is the most exciting conference final of the night and there’s real bad blood between the opponents. I love the institution of basketball that St. Mary’s has become - being a NCAAT staple, dominating their conference (besides Gonzaga most years), and having a true “Defense wins championships” mindset. Unfortunately, it hasn’t led to any championships aside from this year’s regular season title. And unfortunately, I don’t think they will win another one tonight. Tough to beat a team 3 times, especially a team coached by Mark Few. Roll Zags.