March Madness 2025 - Bid Watch

3/12/25

The action is heating up across College Basketball as all major conferences are in play today for conference tournament week. Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and the Big East are all underway - and while those tourneys are just kicking off, we have more that are finishing up this evening. Last night we saw Gonzaga and UNC-Wilmington (correctly predicted) clinch their NCAAT berth, as well as St. Francis PA and Robert Morris (incorrectly predicted). Today we’ve got all sorts of first and second round matchup in the Power 5 - but I’m more interested in the 3 Championship games with bids to the Big Dance on the line.

Southland Final

Lamar (20-12) vs McNeese (26-6)

Predicted Winner: McNeese

There's been a “McNeese vs the World” vibe in the Southland this season as Will Wade’s Cowboys have been the clear-cut favorites all season long. After going 19-1 in conference, McNeese took out Northwestern State last night in the conference semis. Lamar won a nail-biter in their semifinal match, outlasting Nicholls by 3 points with a game-sealing bucket in the last minute.

Lamar has played McNeese pretty tough in both games this season - but wound up losing both. They used a strong defensive effort to get the better of Nicholls last night forcing 15 15 turnovers, gathering 13 steals and 7 blocks, and forcing their opponent to 31% from the field. Alexis Marmolejos - their leading scorer on the year (14.4 ppg) - scored 17 and hit what wound up being the winning bucket (he also had 5 steals in the game). The supporting cast will need to be much stronger to beat McNeese - their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th leading scorers were held to single digits in the semis.

McNeese has been a freight train since Southland play began, but the writing was on the wall for anyone paying attention. They picked up good wins in non-con vs North Texas, Illinois St, and Louisiana. They lost to good opponents like Alabama, South Dakota St, Liberty, and Santa Clara - but this hard schedule prepared them to dominate their conference. Javohn Garcia (13 ppg) has emerged as their leading scorer, and he dropped 24 in the win over NWST.

McNeese is a whopping -13.5 point favorite in this championship match-up, and after dominating the conference all year it makes sense. But I have a hard time believing Lamar will roll over and take a beating on this stage. Lamar has only lost 2 games all season by more than that 13.5 point spread, and both were to ranked teams Texas A&M and Texas Tech. I think Lamar will give the Cowboys all they can handle, but fully expect to see McNeese dancing.

Patriot League Final

Navy (15-18) vs American (21-12)

Predicted Winner: Navy

I never thought I’d see the day where I was genuinely excited to watch a Patriot League basketball game, but here we are. A compelling match-up between the Naval Academy and American University sounds like the most USA-centric game possible for the Patriot Final.

American most recent loss this season came to Navy in February - in fact, they’ve lost both meetings with Navy this year. But the Eagles were great in the Patriot league this season finishing with a 13-5 record and the 2nd seed in the tournament. They barely squeaked by Lafayette in the quarters before beating Colgate by 10 in the semis. Leading scorer Matt Rogers (17 ppg, 41% 3pt) was quiet against LAF, but bounced back with 15 points against Colgate. Lincoln Ball has also provided a spark with back-to-back double digit scoring outputs.

As mentioned before, Navy has gotten the better of American twice this year, and they’re not your typical 15-18 program. They played a tough non-con and got off to a sluggish start in conference play, but in the last month they are 7-1 and have won 5 straight games. Their star player Austin Benigni (19 ppg, 4.3 apg) has scored 30 and 24 points in their QF/SF wins over Bucknell and Boston. Donovan Draper (s/o Mad Men, 8 ppg 8 rpg) is averaging 14/7/3 and 3.5 stocks in conference tournament play, and Jordan Pennick went for 22 in their recent win over American (2nd leading scorer at 11 ppg, 15 pts in win over Bucknell).

On paper, it seems crazy that American is only a -4.5 favorite against a 15-18 Navy team. But when you take into account the previous results this season, how hot Navy has been in recent weeks, and the wave of support Military Academies seem to get from fans when they’re in big games, it makes more sense. I think American may be the better team - they have more shooting and size than the Midshipmen - but crazy things happen in March, and dammit if I’m not a sucker for the Navy.

Big Sky Championship

Montana (24-9) vs Northern Colorado (25-8)

Predicted Winner: Montana

My favorite game of the day hands-down, including any and all other early round Power conference matchups. The two undisputed best teams in the Big Sky, both went 15-3 in conference play, split the season series 1-1, and are both playing very good basketball as of late.

Montana earned their spot in the final after a 2nd round win over Northern Arizona and a beatdown of the plucky Idaho Vandals last night in the semis. This is a red hot unit that didn’t lose a game in February and have won 13 of their last 14 (one loss being a road overtime loss at 3rd seeded Portland St). This is an extremely well-coached group that is very malleable - meaning they can win in different ways. They shot 36 three’s as a team in the Idaho win, but they shot only 10 in their win over N Arizona. They lean into their advantages on a game to game basis. Money Williams, their spark plug off the bench and leading scorer, has been hot lately, averaging 22 points a game over their last 4. They are deep, versatile, and can have a different guy hurt you on any given night. Teams with a star and a supporting cast that can shoot and surprise you is a recipe I like for a March Madness team.

Northern Colorado is the type of team I’d tell my 8th grade feeder basketball players to go home and watch to see how they move the ball, cut, screen, and pass on good shots in search of great shots. They blew out Weber State and Montana State by 24+ in their opening round games to make the final. They’ve won 6 straight and 10 of their last 12, averaging the most points per game in the conference and leading in FG% as well. Their star player Isaiah Hawthorne didn’t play awesome in their semifinal, but went for 29 and 7 boards in their opening game. 2nd leading scorer Langston Reynolds has been quiet thus far, but averaged 16,6 and 3.5 on the season shooting a ridiculous 60% from the field. Keep an eye on Laron Rillie as well - fills the statsheet and is a versatile 3rd option (11/9/6 against Weber).

For those that watch mid-major basketball, this is a wet-dream championship matchup. For those that don’t watch much mid-major basketball, tune in tonight. Because mark my words, the winner of this game will win a game next week in March Madness. I really like both of these teams - they play the right way, they’re fun to watch, they’re extremely well-coached. And they’re evenly matched, evident by the season-series-split. The metrics say No Colorado should win this game - they rank in the top 3 of the conference in just about every offensive metric. But Montana isn’t far behind, and they’ve been really dominant over the last 2+ months. 17-3 since January 2nd, played an excruciating non-conference schedule against Oregon, Tennessee, Utah State, San Francisco and others. I expect a fast-paced, heavy 3-point shooting, up-and-down grudge match between the Big Sky’s finest. The stat came up during their game last night: Montana was playing for their 22nd Big Sky Championship appearance while Idaho was playing for their 1st. You don’t make 22 conference championships by mistake - that’s a culture of winning that they’ve maintained for decades. I love what Northern Colorado has done this year and wish I could put both teams in the Big Dance, but if I only get one, I’m taking the Montana Grizzlies.