Sweet 16 - Thursday Preview

A historically chalky Round of 64 and 32 has led us to a Sweet Sixteen featuring all four 1-seeds, 12/16 teams are a 4 seed or better, and the highest seeded remaining team (a 10) is coached by one of the most-decorated coaches in the sport (Coach Calipari and Arkansas). But the lack of upsets, while disappointing to most, is exciting to me because it means we get the teams that have been been the best all year - theoretically, setting up better match-ups from here on out. Thursday the action kicks off - let's take a look at the 4 match-ups and predict who will advance to the Elite 8.

6 BYU vs 2 Alabama

Bama -5.5

Total: 175.5

Right off rip we have my favorite match-up of the Sweet 16 between the Cougars and the Crimson Tide (Or as I prefer to call it, Mormons vs Mouth-breathers). I love this match-up because it's two teams that love to play fast, are dynamic offensively, and shoot it a lot. This comes with high variance as well, which is why I think BYU has a better shot than most think.

a 91-89 win over 3-Wisconsin, and a 80-71 win (that was less close than the final score leads) vs A-10 Champs VCU bring BYU to the Sweet 16. Richie Saunders has been terrific in those games - 16 and 25 point performances, and hasn't scored fewer than 9 in a game since January. The freshman from Russia Egor Demin has come on late - dished out 8 assists (in honor of his motherland's economic values) against Wisconsin. And at 6'9, he gives them versatility on both ends. They'll need the likes of Trevin Knell, Dallin Hall, and/or Dawson Baker to knock down outside shots to give them their best shot - while Keba Keita staying out of foul trouble will be absolutely vital. But despite not having a ton of height off the bench, they do have a lot of strength from forward Fousseyni Traore, and length from Rutgers transfer Mawot Mag

Nate Oats' Alabama Team looked good enough, but not overly impressive in wins over Saint Mary's and Robert Morris. Star player Mark Sears struggled in the Round of 32, but lit up Robert Morris in the 1st round (as a 20 ppg scorer should). This is probably the deepest team in the tournament - right there with Auburn, Duke, Florida. This is a team that typically shoots a lot of 3's - about 30 3FGA's per game - but only 17 and 21 attempts in their first 2 tourney games. If I'm Bama, the guys I'm looking to attack BYU with are the big, strong, athletic wings and guards they have - Chris Youngblood and Mouhamed Dioubate. But they'll need a big game from Sears, as well as post-scoring from Grant Nelson and Cliff Omoruyi to put pressure on BYU's depth. X-factors are the young guards -- Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway, and if they can exploit BYU's guards defensively.

This is the same line Alabama got when they played Saint Mary's in the Round of 32 - and while they wound up winning by double digits, they weren't great start to finish. The way BYU is playing, you have to be great start to finish to beat this team. Too many shooting lulls on Bama's part will turn into transition buckets and 3's on the other end. I like how BYU looked against 2 high quality teams last weekend, and maybe my Nate Oats bias is showing (shoved a Mizzou player last season, 3 players involved in a murder the year before), but if their Bigs stay out of foul trouble and they shoot the ball like they did last weekend - BYU's winning this game.

My picks: BYU +5.5, Over 175.5 (because when the total eclipses 170, you literally have to take it)

4 Maryland vs 1 Florida

FLA -6.5

Total: 157.5

2 teams that blew out their 1st-round opponent by 25+ before scary 2nd-round games decided by 2 or fewer points - there's plenty of intrigue surrounding The Terps and The Gators. Maryland needed a Derik Queen Buzzer-beater to get here, while Florida had to knock off the 2-time defending National Champions - no short-cuts to the Sweet 16 for either of these squads.

Starting with the Terps - I like this group a whole lot. Their 5 starters all played over 33 minutes - the 4 besides Queen played 36+ each. The Crab Five - Queen, Julian Reese, Jakobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, Selton Miguel - has been terrific this season. 3 guards that average between 12-15 ppg, 2 skilled Bigs that average over 9 rebounds a game. They scored 70 of Maryland's 72 against Colorado State (game of the tourney thus far). They've shot the ball well, but CSU hurt the them on the glass. And it's not like CSU has more size - the tallest players that played 15 minutes for the Rams in that game were 6'8, 6'7, 6'6. Florida's bringing a whole lot more size that that - so if Maryland doesn't sure up the glass (and stay out of foul trouble), they're gonna be toast.

Florida looks the part of a National Champion, and have for a couple months now. They're well coached (even if their coach is a sexual harasser)((Allegedly)), have incredible guards, tons of size, and tons of depth. They got tested against UConn in the Round of 32 - but you can throw seeds and records out the window when it's the 2-time defending Champs. And the positive for Florida in that scare - their guards were sensational. Walter Clayton (23 pts), Alijah Martin (18 pts), and Will Richard (15 pts) are unquestionably the best backcourt in America in my eyes. They shoot it well, they get to the foul line, they defend, they run in transition - and guards win in March. They have a size advantage in this game, but the forwards weren't great against UConn. Alex Condon will need to be a factor, and Thomas Haugh off the bench is my X-factor for Florida.

I love this Maryland team so much - they give me similar vibes as 2022 North Carolina did (not by roster construction, but short bench and mix of youth/experience). And as much as I'd love to see an upset, it's really hard for me to pick against Florida right now. I think they have zero weaknesses - and they're so malleable that I think if Maryland shuts them down in one aspect, they'll get hot in another. But Shoutout Melo Trimble Maryland legend.

My picks: Florida -6.5, over 157.5

4 Arizona vs 1 Duke

Duke -9.5

Total: 154.5

This one is going to be shorter than the other 3 because I can't stand talking about Duke. Unless I'm talking negatively on them of course - then I can go for days. But when they're playing like the best team in the country, have the best player in the country, and have a cakewalk path to the Final Four - there's not much to say. But Arizona is a good team that's battle-tested, and one of their top soldiers is no stranger to knocking off Duke when the odds are stacked against him.

Full disclosure - I don't think there's much of a chance of Zona pulling off this upset. But I do think this is a team that's playing really well, scoring the ball at a super high clip, and has pretty solid size to match-up with a really long Duke team. Caleb Love is obviously the main guy - especially after his massive (and rarely efficient) performance over Oregon - 29 pts on 5-7 from 3. Their tandem of guards -- Love, Jaden Bradley, and KJ Lewis off the bench -- can score in a variety of ways. Freshman Carter Bryant is a fun watch and may be playing himself into the lottery. Anthony Dell'Orso is a transfer from Campbell that can really shoot it, but they'll really need Tobe Awaka and Trey Townsend to hold their own as under-sized forwards.

For Duke. Cooper Flagg is healthy and does every single thing on a basketball court well. Kon Knueppel is an elite shooter and under-rated playmaker. Tyrese Proctor is shooting the fuck out of the ball. Khaman Maluach is 7 foot 2 and I'd be more confident with him on the perimeter guarding Caleb Love than any current North Carolina wing. Sion James is the unsung star, steady hand that takes advantage of mismatches with a 6'6, 220 frame. They guard, they run, they shoot well, they get to the line - they're the scariest match-up in the Tournament.

As much as I want to make myself believe Caleb Love can deliver a second kill shot the the hearts of Blue Devils Fans, I think Duke is in good position to advance. They have so much size and depth, and everyone they bring off the bench can defend. Heart on Zona, money on Duke.

My picks: Duke -9.5 (and yes this is fully in hopes of mushing them), under 154.5

10 Arkansas vs 3 Texas Tech

TT -5.5

Total: 148.5

The night cap features the only remaining double-digit seed in the Arkansas Razorbacks, taking on the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. Their paths couldn't be more different to the Sweet 16 -- Tech beat a pair of mid-majors in UNC-Wilmington and Drake, while Arkansas took out 2 historic college basketball programs and coaches in Kansas and St. John's.

Coach Cal has the hogs firing on all cylinders. Playing their best ball in February and March, Arkansas has a chance to advance to the Elite 8 in their first year under Cal's watch. And they've done it through 2 rounds without their leading scorer Adou Thiero - who might just be back for the Sweet 16. In his absence they've gotten contributions from everywhere - their scoring attack has not only been balanced, but unpredictable. 22 points from Jonas Aidoo (7 ppg on the season) against Kansas, Freshman tandem Karter Knox (8 ppg) and Billy Richmond (5.8 ppg) combined for 31 against St. John's, Johnell Davis with 30+ total pts in the 2 games. Any of 8 guys can lead them in scoring any given night - and with Thiero's return that bumps up to 9. Defensively is where they've shown improvement, and if they can be stout on that end against a versatile Texas Tech team, I see no reason they can't advance.

Texas Tech Coach Grant McCasland came to the program in 2023 after 6 seasons and an NIT Championship with North Texas (They also beat Purdue in a 13 over 4 game back in 2021). In just his 2nd year at TT, he has his Red Raiders in the Sweet 16 with a 27-8 record and a 50-19 overall record at the University. Their first two opponents are not the level of competition Arkansas has seen, but they've looked impressive in the games. And like Arkansas, they've looked versatile. Their star J.T. Toppin went for 25/12 against Drake and has back-to-back double-doubles. Darrion Williams has racked up 41 pts, 15 rbs, and 7 assists through 2 games. Kerwin Walton scored 27 and hit 8 triples against UNCW (scored 0 against Drake). Elijah Hawkins was an assist away from a fucking Triple-Double in the same game. They've played 2 very different games vs 2 very different teams: as a team they shot 46 total 3-pointers against UNCW, but shot only 14 against Drake. They're tough, the starters play a ton, well-coached, make their free throws, and win differently.

Texas Tech is the favorite in this game, but this feels like the most even-strength match-up of the day. And since I don't have a strong lean, I'm going to use a dumb theory I've constructed in my head rather than statistical analysis for a betting play. It goes: Coach Cal has beaten two legendary coaches - Rick Pitino and Bill Self in Arkansas' first 2 games. Coach Cal's Kentucky teams in last 3 tournaments have lost to Oakland, Saint Peter's, and K-State (with 1st year coach Jerome Tang). Grant McCasland was at North Texas, new to the TT Job, lesser-known guy - my idiot logic is pulling me toward the Red Raiders.

My picks: Texas Tech -5.5, Over 148.5 (they'll be fresh right?)

And that's all she wrote for Thursday. Come back Friday Morning for the 3/28 Slate - and be sure to not only Subscribe to Bean's Blog, but check back on this blog Friday Morning as well. If my picks suck - you'll have a full guide of Friday picks to fade. If they do well - who knows what we can do. And in both scenarios, I get an additional view on this blog. A win, win, win.